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Mixed shipping indicators in Asia, US re-shaping tanker market, says Bimco

Mixed shipping indicators in Asia, US re-shaping tanker market, says Bimco
Continued growth in China, contraction in Japan and the US' oil boom are the focus of Bimco's latest assessment of demand indicators for the shipping market.

A minor decrease in industrial production in China to 9% for the month of July is above the year-to-date average of 8.8%, but lags behind the 9.7% reached in 2013. The figure, which measures output across multiple industrial sectors, remains strong, but reflects a small dip in the country's GDP growth.

One negative point out of China is the news of lower credit growth, highlighting the difficulties face balancing the economy against the housing market, according to Bimco.

Worse news came from Japan, where a quarter-on-quarter annualised growth rate of -6.8% for the second quarter cancelled out the 6.1% gain enjoyed in the first quarter this year. Blame has been placed at a sales tax hike and related drop in consumer spending. Imports are down as much as 20.5%, with exports down by 1.8% as the weakening yen fails to make an impact.

Chief shipping analyst at Bimco, Peter Sand, commented: "The economic news from the two Asian giants shows that today there is no such thing as a steady state for economic development. Whereas China is carefully engaged in nursing its economic growth while avoiding the overheating of certain sectors of its economy, Japan is just about to re-ignite its economy following decades of poor performance. The development of both nations significantly impacts shipping demand".

For the tanker market, the US' estimated 8.5m barrel per day (bpd) output of crude oil in July, the highest level since April 1987, is a sign of continued change in trade routes. The drop in crude imports and boost to product exports has already changed the oil tanker market, with challenges and opportunities left to come.

"The developments taking place in US oil market are a game changer for tanker shipping. The world's largest oil consumer once dictated the fortunes of the tanker market with its huge imports of crude oil and oil products. Today, it represents the challenges as well as the opportunities for the industry, with the US importing 4.6m bpd of crude oil (excl. Canada) as compared to 8.5m bpd eight years ago, and 2011 being the year when the US emerged as a net exporter of oil products," said Sand.

TAGS: Asia BIMCO