Banchero Costa head of research Ralph Leszczynski noted that newbuilding deliveries were 20% down on the same period last year and this trend would continue going forward. “Deliveries are going down month by month.”
The capesize fleet is expected to grow by just 5% this year compared to 19% in 2010.
However, demolition volumes are also down with 37 less ships scrapped so far this year compared to the same period in 2013.
“Things are clearly improving, but it doesn’t help if people order more ships,” he said. “We still have to work away the excess capacity, the more we order the longer time this will take. So scrap more, order less.”
While Leszczynski warned owners not to order more ships, when asked shipowners on the same panel said it was the right time to buy, although in some cases secondhand tonnage rather than ordering newbuilds.
Sypros Capralos, chairman of Star Bulk Carriers said, “Right now it's a low entry point.” He added they would be looking for vessels including distressed assets.
Erasmus Shipinvest ceo John Su said they would be buyers in maybe two months time with a preference towards 10-year old panamaxes. Mercator Lines (Singapore) managing director and ceo Shalabh Mittal also said they would look at buying with panamaxes and ultramaxes preferred.
Sitting on the fence was BergeBulk ceo James Marshall who said they were “neither a buyer or a seller”.
“We bought a lot of ships. I wouldn’t say newbuildings are cheap at the moment and the orderbook is very large,” he explained.
Meanwhile Precious Shipping managing director Khalid Hashim noted that they had already bought 20 ships which deliver across 2014 – 16. “What we are now going to do is sell 20 older non-eco ships,” he said.
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