Speaking at the Bimco Power Panel at Posidonia 2018, Henriette Brent-Petersen, md and global head of shipping and offshore research at DVB Bank, “We see from 12 – 18 months from now fundamental improvement in the market, and we expect the improvement to be like what we’ve seen since 2016 in dry (bulk).”
Once it starts to recover the crude tanker is not expected to spike up quickly but rather be “a slow fundamental recovery if you are looking at earnings year on year”.
The fundamental recovery in 12 – 18 months will be after the pressure of significant newbuilding deliveries at present tail off. The volume of newbuild deliveries is such that DVB does not think the oversupply can be mitigated by increased demand.
Although it is not all bad news in the short term and the latter half of 2018 is expected to be better than the first for crude tankers.
“But we expect the second half of this year to be significantly stronger than the first half, we expect the current level to be the extreme low with significant improvement in the second half of the year driven by seasonality. But this is not to be with a cyclical recovery which will not be for 12 to 18 months,” Brent-Petersen explained.