As container throughput at the world's third busiest port predictably fell 12% last month, the question that begs to be asked must be where the diverted cargo went and whether it will return. It is still too early to effectively determine the longer-term impact of the strike, but the wider trends have been evident for some time now.
As ports surrounding it have developed rapidly, Hong Kong has done little to keep up and risks being left behind. Observers have commented that its status as a major transshipment port for South China's exports has been based on its greater efficiency compared to ports there.
However, as these ports have grown this gap is diminishing. Buyers and exporters were forced to switch to ports in neighbouring Shenzhen to keep their goods moving during the strike, and it remains to be seen whether they have found that the difference is negligible enough to make the move permanent.
Estimates of Hong Kong's share of the South China direct export market range from 30% to 60%, although it is generally acknowledged that even before the strike this percentage has been falling as more direct calls at south China ports take traffic away.
The numbers bear this out. While the 12% fall to 1.73m teu last month was bad, it was not the worst for the year, as throughput fell 16% year-on-year in February. In fact, as part of a wider trend of poor global economic conditions and the hollowing out of industry from "the world's factory" of southern China throughput has been falling over the past two years.
Container throughput for 2012 was 5% lower than 2011's, which in turn saw barely a 3% rise from the year before. For this year, January was the only month which saw a slight 3% increase from the same month the year before and year-to-date volumes are already down 8%.
Meanwhile Shenzhen Port saw a 2% increase in throughput to 1.8m teu, in April, while Guangzhou Port posted a 0.2% rise to 1.3m teu.
The threat to Hong Kong's transhipment business comes not only from its neighbouring ports but also from other regional ports further afield such as Busan in Northeast Asia and Singapore and Port of Tanjung Pelepas in Southeast Asia.
Manufacturing trends are changing and with them global trade patterns as China becomes more expensive and factories start to move in search of cheaper manufacturing bases in other countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia. While these moves may be a long way off yet, there seems to be an air of inevitability about the situation as the authorities continue to hesitate over decisions such as whether to build more terminals and boost infrastructure.
Meanwhile, competitors such as Singapore and Busan are rushing ahead with expansion plans that will see them prepared to meet forecast capacity needs well into the next few decades.
While it may be difficult to predict future trade patterns, what is clear is that in a fast moving global market, sitting on your hands and hoping for the best is not an option.
