Dry bulk deliveries down, outlook up says Bimco

In its six week forecast the association remained grounded, pointing to overcapacity as the factor preventing rates from flying high in the face of a world output hike from 3.2% in 2012 to 3.5% this year. Even though 2013 is set to begin a downward trend in new tonnage and demolition is expected to stay strong at 3.6% of the total fleet, the escalating deliveries of the past four years have left a largely saturated market. Deliveries in January 2013 were at a seven month high of 8.1m dwt, in line with predictions of a front loaded year.

Strong Chinese iron ore imports at the end of 2012 rallied full year figures to a 744m ton total, according to Chinese customs data, and Bimco expects a continuing preference for seaborne imports from Brazil and Western Australia to the middle kingdom, sating the hungry oversupplied capsize fleet with modest earnings. For the coal carriers the new Chinese five year energy plan is will have an uncertain impact, the plan caps coal equivalents at four billion tonnes, but this could see increased demand for imported coal as the higher quality imports give power plants greater energy output per tonne.

The six week forecast is: capesize time charter average rates at $4,500-8,500 per day, panamax at $3,500-8,500 per day interval, supramax at $6,000-9,500 per day interval and handysize rates at the $5,000-8,000 per day.

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