In a presentation at an IBIA conference, part of London International Shipping Week, Draffin said, "I believe, and so do two or three or maybe four others on the IBIA board, quite strongly, that we don't have an availability problem pre-2020. In 2015 the sulphur limit within Emission Control Areas will be 0.1%, with a global cap of 0.5% set to be introduced in 2020.
"There is enough distillate to cope with 2015-2020, the problem comes when we come to the cap. But when the cap comes in, we will have had between five and 10 years to install scrubbers, we will have had between five and 10 years to start with alternative fuel systems, so it isn't that immediate. I think you will find it is very difficult to push back at IMO on regulation already in place, I won't say it won't happen, look at what happened with the Russians on NOx."
Earlier this year, the IMO surprised many by announcing a five year delay in regulations surrounding NOx emissions, pushing legislation back to 2021 from 2016 after the Russians put forward a paper arguing that the technologies in place to meet the regulation were prohibitively expensive and underdeveloped.
When prompted to comment on the development of regulation at the IMO, Trevor Harrison, board member of IBIA, claimed that the EU sulphur directive prevented the UK from taking measures to introduce sulphur reducing measures at an industry-friendly pace.
"The US has actually given exemptions to Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, it has given exemptions to ships on the great lakes, it has given exemptions to a couple of vessels working on the West coast between Washington and Alaska, it has also just now given further exemptions… to 32 vessels at Carnival."
"And they can do it, all they have to do is go along to the IMO and say 'as a sovereign state, we have, under our ECA, allowed this.' They did it last MEPC, virtually every other country said, 'we strongly disagree,' and the US said 'Well tough'… and in the UK we can't do that."
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