"At present, LNG represents the first and most likely alternative fuel to be seen as a genuine replacement for HFO for ships built after 2020," the study claims, with battery hybrids flourishing in certain segments and other fuels playing important roles in the future fuels mix.
The study took a holistic look at the environmental impact of fuels, taking into account the fuels' production and transport costs, such as land and water usage for biofuels. With "well-to-propeller-analysis" the research considered at the environmental impact of each fuel from its production to use, along with the technical and commercial hurdles each fuel will have to overcome.
LNG, ship electrification and renewables, biofuels, Hydrogen, LPG, methanol, ethanol, di-methyl ether and nuclear were all considered in DNV GL's future vision.
Cost of fuel, access to capital for retrofits and new technology, and the availability of fuel infrastructure were identified as potential barriers to adoption for fuels, with the latter creating possible deadlock situations where potential users are deterred by poor infrastructure and suppliers are deterred by low demand.
Except for nuclear, where problems with public perception and commercial viability remain, regional short sea shipping is seen as acting as a test bed for most fuel types.
What makes sense for a short sea shipping in one area with an abundance of a certain fuel or resource doesn't necessarily play out on the world stage however, and the jump to ocean shipping for any fuel will depend on the development of a reliable worldwide infrastructure for bunkering.
"The global merchant fleet currently consumes around 330m tonnes of fuel annually, 80-85% of which is residual fuel with high sulphur content," said Christos Chryssakis, DNV GL senior researcher and position paper project manager. "Shipping must change, and we must contribute technical measures, operational measures and alternative fuels to meet the challenges we are tackling.
"There is no doubt that adopting new technologies are likely to be a challenge for ship owners. DNV GL is leading the way through our technology qualification processes which are designed to ensure that new technologies work as expected," added Chryssakis.
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