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Shipping downturn could last five years: DNV

Shipping downturn could last five years: DNV

Oslo: As many as 300 of DNV's 1,500 new ship contracts, many of them in Asia, could be cancelled, according to class executives. And the figure could yet go higher. The latest estimates from DNV come as February figures show Chinese exports plunged by around a quarter.
DNV believes that 434 firm cancellations have taken place so far out of the 10,400-plus orderbook, with around 180 in South Korea and 160 in China. But these figures do not reflect the true picture: there are nearly 400 container vessels laid up or idle whilst slow steaming is thought to have taken another 10% of capacity out of the market.
The present orderbook could well result in a tonnage surplus amounting to 5,000-8,000 ships, DNV believes. So-called "warm lay-up" or idling anchorages in Singapore are already full and space is limited at other locations including Hong Kong and Fujairah. DNV analysts are contemplating a crisis that could last 3-5 years but stress that the outlook is very uncertain.  [11/03/09]

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