Container shippers pay a heavy price for early peak season

Xeneta figures show that spot rates to the US West Coast and US East Coast increased by 144% and 139% respectively while North European rates increased 166%, between 30 April and 1 July.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said that the Red Sea attacks and Middle East conflict has seen “a major shift in the traditional seasonality of ocean supply chains,” as shippers and forwarders sought to avoid the delays and costs associated with the chaos of the pandemic years.

“Shippers wanted to protect supply chains and that has come with a heavy price tag. The massive volumes shipped in May and June contributed to the severe congestion seen at ports in Asia and the dramatic spike in rates.”

According to Sand there is a “clear correlation” between spot rates and the record volumes seen, particularly to the US, but also to the European market, with some shippers importing Christmas goods as early as May to avoid any crisis later in the year.

“Those shippers who rushed imports may have spent far more than they wanted to, but they clearly felt it was a price worth paying to lower the level of risk in their supply chains later in the year,” said Sand.

Volumes to the US have seen a significant increase according to Descartes Datamyne’s latest analysis. July 2024 import volumes increased 11.2% from June 2024, to 2.55 million teu.

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And July volumes are a 26-month high, since the all-time high of May 2022, with container throughput now at levels that saw port congestion and supply chain disruption and backlogs during the pandemic.

US imports from China reached a record high of 1,022,913 teu, compared to the previous high set in August 2022 of 1,003,725 teu, according to Descartes figures.

“The July 2024 volume increase over June 2024 is consistent with the rise in peak ocean shipping season in non-pandemic years. July 2024 volumes were also the highest of any July totals in the past six years, surpassing July 2022 imports by 25,274 teu,” said Descartes.

In spite of the increased US volumes, Descartes reported that the volumes had not had any significant impact on port delays and congestion in the US.

Xeneta has noted, however, that spot rates have declined in August suggesting the peak season may have already ended.

“If we are now seeing spot rates softening in August, that would suggest we have also already seen the peak in demand for ocean container shipping and volumes should be lower in July and August during what would ordinarily have been the peak season.”