Nuanced fleet growth in divided container marketNuanced fleet growth in divided container market
As the global cellular fleet approaches the 30m teu mark, with a year-to-date increase of 8%, the divisions in the market from carbon pricing are already being felt.

In its latest quarterly report Braemar Shipbroker said that the small vessel sector, ships up to 2,000 teu, increased by 98 vessels up to September this year, with the most vessel deliveries in the market.
“Mid-sized vessels, in the 5,100-7,499 teu size band enjoyed a surge of deliveries in 2024 as the revival continues, we noted 60 newbuildings delivered, net fleet growth 13.0% y/y in the first nine months. To put this mid-size resurgence into perspective, in the eleven years 2011-2021. there were just 80 newbuilding deliveries in this sector,” said Braemar.
According to Braemar researcher Jonathon Roach, the focus is now on the smaller sizes for two reasons. Firstly, these are the oldest vessels in the fleet, and secondly, as new tonnage arrives, the cascading of larger vessels down to the smaller trades will eventually bring an uptick in demolition, probably starting next year.
“The age of smaller ships, will create a crunch, but more generally the age profile of the [container] fleet is that 21% of the ships are 20-years-old plus,” said Roach, “Demolition assumptions are for a 45% increase by 2030, but for vessels of up to 5,000 teu, that increases to an estimated 57%.”
With charter rates still at an elevated level, Braemar’s BOXI index is down from its 260 point high to 240, but the pre-covid 2019 average was 80 points. Charter rates are expected to fall further as the market softens and new deliveries boost capacity substantially, by an estimated 10.5% this year, a 15-year high, and a further estimated 6% net growth next year.
Many of the smaller vessels in the fleet operate in the intra-Asia trades, which are growing, with some of China’s manufacturing spreading around Asian states.
Roach, however, points out: “There are only 26 sub-1,000 teu ships on order, we are expecting a squeeze on sub-panamax tonnage in the intra-Asia trades.”
He added there is a need for Bangkokmax vessels and there is interest in ordering regional tonnage, said Roach while also pointing out that the older regional vessels can operate in markets where there are no carbon charges, at least for now, extending their operational life.
“A two-tier charter market is emerging because the cost of operating eco-vessels is lower than the older tonnage, so these vessels are seeing a premium added, it is not just the cost of carbon charges,” Roach pointed out.
Even so, Braemar reported that feeder and regional orders remained “muted” in Q3 this year, while noting “substantial interest” in mid-sizes, 8,000-9,200 teu vessels, of which there were an estimated 42 ordered in Q3 2024.
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