Analysts Sea-Intelligence compared the number of blank sailings that resulted from the Covid outbreak at Yantian port last tear on the Asia – US West Coast trade with the lockdown in Shanghai this year. In the case of the Shanghai lockdown the number of blank sailings has actually come down from before the lockdown, whereas in the case of Yantian last year it rose after the
“This also implies that even though the level of blank sailings right now basically matches the number seen in 2021 following the Yantian impact, it cannot be concluded that the impact on the market is the same. Quite the contrary, there has not yet been any material impact on blank sailings, beyond the normal state of affairs – to the degree than that market prior to the Shanghai lockdown can be called ‘normal’,” said Alan Murphy CEO Sea-Intelligence.
Sea-Intelligence also saw no impact on the number of blank sailings on the Asia-North America East Coast trade compared to the Yantian outbreak, while on the Asia – Europe trade the impact was similar between the two incidents.
A key factor has been that while the Yantian outbreak closed two-thirds of Yantian International Container Terminals for a three-week period, in the case of Shanghai the port has remained open. The impact has instead been caused on the landside to trucking, warehousing, and factory production.
“It should however be clearly noted that we could still be in an early phase of the Shanghai lockdown, and if the factory closings persist, it is highly likely that the number of blank sailings will begin to increase in the coming weeks,” Murphy said.
The current situation has led to congestion at Shanghai terminals, and in particular reefer cargoes being diverted, but not the large scale skipping of port calls.
An image of highly congested marine traffic around Shanghai based on AIS data that has done the rounds on social media this week “illustrating” the problem, includes all shipping traffic not just containerships with many people seemingly unaware just how busy Asia’s mega-ports are on any given day.
However, hopes an easing of the lockdown have been dashed as the Shanghai government said on Friday that restrictions would only be lifted in batches in areas where there had zero community transmission.
Shipping line Maersk said in an update to customers on Thursday that some warehouse operations in Shanghai had partly resumed this week. Some factories such as Tesla’s Giga Factory have also resumed operations but is reported to struggling for parts due to supply chain issues.
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