North America West Coast (NAWC) volumes were stagnant during the usual peak season, then declined from September through November 2022 when compared with 2021 and when annualised and compared with 2019.
The annualised figures compared to 2019 show a decline in volume growth from March 2022’s peak of 14.2%. The growth rate dipped into negative territory in July and then again in September, October and November 2022.
“Like total handling volumes, laden inbound volumes are now also firmly negative. On a Y/Y basis, laden imports have been negative for most of the period since mid-2021, and have dropped below -20% in October and November of 2022,” said Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence.
The shift in container volumes between the North America coasts has been evident for some time and accelerated by extreme congestion on the West Coast during the pandemic. The ongoing threat of labour disruption on the West Cost further incentivises a shift Eastward.
“The decreasing trend in laden imports hints at a continued demand decrease into 2023, with additional contractions in demand across Chinese New Year highly likely,” said Murphy. Container lines will feel further pressure to limit capacity through blank sailings as easing bottlenecks increase effective capacity, he added.
“A slight positive however, is the increase in the laden-export-to-empty-export ratio (improvement towards laden exports). While the ratio is still below 1 – favouring empty exports – it increased from 0.5 to 0.7 in November. The improvement is not because of a sudden burst of laden exports, which are still contracting within -8% and -11%, but a slowdown in empty exports, the growth of which has now nearly stagnated,” said Murphy.
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