Dry bulk FFA market: Hey now, don’t dream it’s over

This is thanks to a growing feeling that the recent bounce may have run out of puff - in the face of some pretty irrefutable evidence. Certainly the market has traded in an upward rise for volatility and the trend appears to be a stuttering physical market which saw the leading indicators fall.

None of this stopped the capesize paper market opening in bullish tone, though the market had a volatile market which turned into an aggressive sell-off. The reason for the downturn seemed unclear given the gains on the index which should have kept the market upbeat.

By week’s end there was an early bounce but aggressive selling followed and the long UK weekend loomed. Neither the nearby or calendars escaped the sell off and May was marked below spot, suggesting the index has more downside but since capes move in mysterious ways it wouldn’t take much to move the market back up again.

Panamaxes continued easier across the curve with prompts continuing to flatten out giving the curve little shape to play with. May and June traded in good volume while Q3 dipped lower.

Weaker again as the week closed before settling into a steady range but after another dismal index we saw the bottom end of the range tested though not broken and closed the day flat, with a cautious tone ahead of the holidays.

Supramaxes maintained a slide across the week with rates continuing to decrease in a softening market. There was a positive midweek index but still the curve saw the weight stay on the offer side with bids rather thin.

Softer again as the week ended but activity was limited throughout. Another positive index but once again we saw a very quiet afternoon, drifting to a close with little more activity.

Contact FIS: http://freightinvestorservices.com/freight-derivatives/ffas/