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Precious Shipping boss eyes Q1 2014 dry bulk recoveryPrecious Shipping boss eyes Q1 2014 dry bulk recovery

A recovery in the dry bulk shipping market could come as early as first quarter 2014 according to Precious Shipping boss Khalid Hashim.

Marcus Hand, Editor

October 30, 2013

2 Min Read
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In the company’s third quarter newsletter Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping, cited Chinese iron ore demand and five macro-economic factors that could accelerate a recovery in the dry bulk shipping market to early in 2014.

He noted that a Chinese government stimulus plan for railways, buildings and infrastructure could generate demand for 135m tonnes of steel. “That would require 200m tonnes of iron ore, enough to fill 180 capesize ships! As long as the landed price of imported iron ore in China is less than $135 per tonne, it makes economical sense to continue to import iron ore.”

On top of this there were five macro-economic indicators that had turned positive. First, the USDA has forecast grain exports to rise 11% in the period October 2013 to June 2014.  This is a volume increase but when you factor in ton-mile, slow steaming, congestion and under utilisation you find that effective demand increase is about 15% to 17%,” he said.

Second, China is starting to ramp up its economy that is shown in positive Q3 economic numbers.

Third, Japan’s economy is faring better and with the shutdown of nuclear power plants more coal is being imported.

Fourth, major European economies such UK, Germany and France are showing stronger economic numbers.

And fifth, he said, “India, with its weak currency, might become a very large exporter of agricultural products from their smaller, shallower drafted and inefficient ports which would result in massive congestion and reduction in effective supply of smaller ships.”

Concluding Hashim said: “If these five factors continue to remain positive, the expected recovery in the dry bulk markets may start earlier than Q4 of 2014 and could be as early as Q1 or Q2 of next year.”

About the Author

Marcus Hand

Editor

Marcus Hand is the editor of Seatrade Maritime News and a dedicated maritime journalist with over two decades of experience covering the shipping industry in Asia.

Marcus is also an experienced industry commentator and has chaired many conferences and round tables. Before joining Seatrade at the beginning of 2010, Marcus worked for the shipping industry journal Lloyd's List for a decade and before that the Singapore Business Times covering shipping and aviation.

In November 2022, Marcus was announced as a member of the Board of Advisors to the Singapore Journal of Maritime Talent and Technology (SJMTT) to help bring together thought leadership around the key areas of talent and technology.

Marcus is the founder of the Seatrade Maritime Podcast that delivers commentary, opinions and conversations on shipping's most important topics.

Conferences & Webinars

Marcus Hand regularly moderates at international maritime events. Below you’ll find a list of selected past conferences and webinars.

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