Was it nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of Brexit and get ready for an influx of Customs officers, like the Port of Dublin? Or should UK ports take arms against that sea of troubles and set up Free Trade Zones and encourage port-centric manufacturing, as suggested by Associated British Ports’ chief executive James Cooper?
A panel discussion at the British Ports Association’s conference focusing on the UK’s forthcoming exit from the European Union and the impact on trade was always going to generate some strong views.
Eamonn O’Reilly, chief executive of Ireland’s Dublin Port Company insisted: “The worst-case scenario I think is now the most probable scenario. I think there will be Customs controls in place and I think that is something we have to adapt to.”
It was no good waiting for the outcome of the UK-EU negotiations before acting, he said, “because politicians don’t tend to get things done as quickly as we would like.”
Dublin, which handles 850,000 ro-ro units a year to and from UK ports, is going to build new road layouts, put up inspection sheds for more Customs officers, and set aside land for the queues of trucks that it is expecting post-Brexit, he said. With only 18 months to go, and with experience of just how long it generally takes to build any port infrastructure, he said he knew there was no alternative.
Customs, he said, had indicated that there may be a 5% rate of inspection of cargo. “If there is anything much more profound than that, we will give over part of our scarce land to hold the queues that will be there. We are quite resigned to that.”
The conference was hosted by Poole Harbour Commissioners, whose chief executive, Jim Stewart, was also pessimistic. “Unless a deal is secured and sensible measures put in place, we are going to see some carnage at ferry ports, and long delays,” he said.
Uncertainty was the big worry: “There are companies out there which use the UK to manufacture and ship goods to the EU, which is a positive thing. If they see obstacles being placed and tariffs being charged, it is inevitable that some of these companies will move to the EU. And we are seeing that already. As ports, we facilitate traders and manufacturers getting goods to and from market. I think it is inevitable we will see port volumes decline.”
Over to James Cooper for a more upbeat view. Ninety percent of trade through ABP’s port of Southampton has nothing to do with the EU, he said – “and we don’t have queues”.
“Technology exists for that to happen. It has been deployed elsewhere, so I am not as gloomy as my colleagues. I think ports can cope with what is thrown at them.”
Free trade zones are part of the answer and together with port-centric manufacturing could help to address regional imbalances, he said. “The sad voting fact is that every port town from the Scottish border to Swansea voted ‘out’ and it wasn’t turkeys voting for Christmas, but turkeys that had already experienced Christmas.”
Given recent ministerial pronouncements, who knew that ‘frictionless’ trade isn’t all good? As Cooper pointed out, frictionless trade has rendered many port towns places where goods transit but no longer stay, and there are no longer the jobs doing anything to that product as it passes through. “If we can, as a package of measures, optimise port-centric manufacturing, it will be good for a number of places left behind in the last 30 years.”
And anyway, he said, there has never been such a good time for ports to air their views. Ports around the UK have been the ‘beneficiaries’ of visits from any number of officials and ministers who have suddenly developed an interest in trade.
“We almost have a dedicated suite in Southampton for people who want to know how we trade with the rest of the world – and clearly have no idea that we do – saying ‘golly, is that how a Land Rover gets out of the country?’ Well …yes.”
The last word should probably go to Tim Reardon, policy director, ferry and cruise, at the UK Chamber of Shipping. A sort of ‘be careful what you plan for’ warning. “I would say, don’t build new sheds or take on Customs officers. If you have the facilities and the guys in uniforms, you will end up with people looking for something to do and getting in the way.”
Worse than a thousand natural shocks.
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