Excel's collapse brings Greek introspection

What did shake the Greek community was the realization that even the battling home-based Panayotides, should face defeat.

"He is a stubborn man, a workaholic, and an intelligent person who over some 35 years has turned a two-ship operation he inherited into a name on Wall Street and made himself a major player in the industry," said one long-time Akti Miaouli Piraeus-based associate.

And it is this which has really seen the Greek community stop and think, really hard about what lies on the horizon.
Of course this process has been going on for sometime and since the beginning of June, Newsfront Greek Shipping Intelligence, has reported six Greek companies either selling or scrapping their last ships, though at least two of them have confirmed they are simply taking a breather and will be back.

This is hardly the case for many of the 38 Greek companies listed on a stock exchange leader board in Athens, London or New York. For them there is little time for a breather. We have already lost Peter Georgiopoulos' GenMar tanker operation. Excel is likely to be the next to go.

Among the smaller companies headquartered in Greece, FreeSeas, NewLead Holdings, Seanergy Maritime and TOP Ships are all up against the wall.

In the wake of Excel we now have market analysts speaking with much concern about some of the larger companies, DryShips, Eagle Bulk Shipping and Genco. There are even mumbling about DryShips' affiliate Ocean Rig.

Concerns about DryShips, Eagle and Genco have been expressed in the past, but the looming demise of Excel as a public company has again cast clouds over the future of the trio.

DryShips and Ocean Rig, part of the Athens-based George Economou-led mixed stable of 97 ships of 13.85m dwt. US-based Genco, along with NYSE-listed Baltic Trading, and now de-listed GenMar are Greece's largest fleet shipwise with 102 vessels of a total capacity of 10.2m dwt. Eagle Bulk / Sophocles Zoullas runs 45 bulkers of 2.45m dwt.

Erik Nikolai Stavseth, an analyst at Arctic Securities, quickly told investors: "The downfall [of Excel] has been in the making for a long time, and we find the situation to highlight the risk related to other US-listed names such as [Eagle Bulk Shipping and Genco]."

Excel "took a fleet write-down of about $1.5bn in relation to the Chapter XI filing and, based on 1Q13 figures for [Genco], we would estimate a write-down in the range of $1.3bn should they align to current asset values", he said.

He noted Genco had long-term vessels at a book value of $2.29bn, excluding ships of Baltic Trading, the Genco spin-off, adding: "We estimate a market value of $980m."

Michael Webber of Wells Fargo Securities told his clients June 11: "Despite a recent improvement in sentiment we continue to believe it is too early for a sustainable recovery in the dry bulk market, and we reiterate the balance sheet risk posed by DryShips, Genco and Eagle is likely more of a realistic near-term risk than any fundamental, long-term dry bulk recovery."

Gregory Lewis of Credit Suisse downgraded Ocean Rig, giving the Nasdaq-listed stock a "neutral" rating, saying "we are expecting sooner rather than later another sale by DryShips of its Ocean Rig stake". DryShips reduced its stake to 59.4% from 65% after offloading 7.5m shares early this year and has pledged 17m shares to lenders.

But back to Excel and 'Villy' (as he is known) Panayotides. Anyone who has associated with him, even for a short time, is left in no doubt he is 24 / 7 when it comes to his shipping business.

"He is difficult to work with, as he always backs his business judgement. But at the same time he is emotional and from time to time his heart has over-ruled his head."

However, those who know the president, chairman, director, and for a short time ceo, of Excel say he is unlikely to take to the lifeboats, and the struggle is set to continue.

Add Seatrade Maritime News to your Google News feed.