Oil prices should stand at near $55 a barrel in 2017Q1, as the Gulf Cooperation Council’s legacy oil producers recover their position in the market, Ibrahim Fahmy, marine advisor to Zakum Development Company (Zadco), ADNOC’s biggest offshore operating company, told Offshore Arabia in Dubai.
Supply-demand dynamics in the world oil market are expected to stabilise in the next two years, he said. However, it is clear that Saudi Arabia will persist in flooding the market if it believes Iran stands to gain from doubling its own production in the wake of the lifting of international sanctions.
Global energy demand is forecast to increase 60% by 2040, to 150m barrels per day (bpd), with fossil fuels remaining essential to the energy mix, Fahmy believes, despite the current push for renewables.
World oil demand is forecast at 94m bpd in 2016, Fahmy said. Recorded global oil supplies currently stand at 95.5m bpd, official OPEC production at 32.5m bpd, or 34%, with additional non-recorded oil supplies at around 3.5m bpd.
ADNOC’s offshore assets include oil production of around 1.5m bpd from more than 10 natural and artificial islands and over 15 offshore super-complexes. ADNOC operates over 500 offshore topside facilities and has installed over 5,000 km of subsea pipelines and cables.
Total ADNOC investment in the last decade averaged $2.5bn a year.
Key ADNOC goals include meeting expected increases in global demand, and supplying the UAE with the gas it requires for the local market, particularly for power generation. ADNOC’s stated target is to increase daily oil production from around 2.7m bpd today to 3.5m bpd by 2020.
ADNOC set up its Zadco joint venture, according to the EIA, with ExxonMobil, and Japan Oil Development Company, to develop the Upper Zakum oil field, the world’s second-largest offshore field, but it now operates several other reservoirs.
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