Supply chain bottlenecks slow offshore wind development

According to recent analysis by Oslo-based Rystad Energy, last year’s offshore wind capacity increase of 7% is likely to rise to 9% this year, with 11 GW of new installations added by year-end.

The sector, seen as pivotal in the global energy transition, is forecast to exceed 520 GW by 2040 (excluding mainland China), with floating capacity projected to provide 90 GW, of which Europe is likely to account for more than 65 GW by then.

Rystad’s analysts expect today’s floating wind total of less than one gigawatt to grow close to 7 GW by 2030. But the sector is facing similar supply chain constraints to the bottom-fixed segment and increased government support is crucial, the firm said. The UK, France and Portugal are likely to be at the forefront of European floating offshore wind development likely to total 5 GW, with Asia (excluding mainland China) adding 2 GW by the end of this decade.

Significant growth is expected in the Americas over the years from 2025 to 2030 when total capacity is likely to reach 2 GW. However, the future of the sector in the US is contingent on its political landscape – if the Republicans were to win the upcoming election, a new administration might well hinder offshore wind development, Rystad said.

Petra Manuel, the firm’s Senior Analyst, Offshore Wind, commented: “The global offshore wind sector is experiencing robust growth, fuelled by increased investment and auction activity. However, supply chain bottlenecks present significant challenges to the industry’s further expansion.

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“While ambitious targets boost investor confidence, it is crucial to address logistical issues to ensure that offshore wind can successfully take a key role in the energy transition. This will not only help the technology mature, but also foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires investor reliance.”