Shippers concerned at uptick in port congestionShippers concerned at uptick in port congestion

Supply chain visibility company Beacon’s monthly report on 100 global ports has seen the initial increases in congestion in Asia, North America and Europe, as well as in other regions, but it is unclear whether these slightly elevated levels of congestion are the rumblings of something bigger, or a symptom of some other, more minor problem.

Zhoushan, tops the list of vessels at anchor, with Beacon reporting 24 ships awaiting a berth on 1 December, but this was a decrease of four ships compared to 1 August, and an increase of 14 vessels from November.

Tianjin has also seen increased numbers of ships at anchor, recorded at 15 on 1 December a significant increase on of 14 ships compared to 1 August, and indeed on the last month. Other concerns have been voiced about Colombo, European ports, including the North African hub at Tangier, and some North American terminals.

Beacon CEO Fraser Robinson told Seatrade Maritime News: “This year has seen a clear worsening in port congestion, as evidenced by year-on-year average anchor times increasing at nearly 70% of analysed ports. While 30% of ports saw increases of two hours or more, only 15% saw reductions of the same magnitude.”

According to Robinson the Red Sea crisis has played a major role in these deteriorating conditions.

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“In Shanghai congestion levels have been higher than previous year levels in 11 of the 12 months since the onset of the crisis. Other major ports including Rotterdam, Valencia, Piraeus, Jebel Ali and Singapore have seen similar trends,” he said.

Global Shippers’ Forum (GSF) Director James Hookham, believes that the threat of strikes and tariffs are having an impact, as well as the usual rush of cargo ahead of Chinese New Year, which is on and around 29 January.

However, Hookham conceded that the current market was “weird” and that he was “surprised there was not more [congestion] than there is now.”

He went to say that the liner shipping sector seems to be in a “state of continual crisis because the Red Sea is unavailable, and I don’t get that.”

Drewry’s ports analyst Eirik Hooper, confirmed that the consultant had also seen an elevation in port congestion, but he said it is “regionally specific”.

In the US the brief strike on the East Coast and hurricanes had caused disruption and in addition refurbishment work in Norfolk had seen increases in congestion at both Savannah and Norfolk, while industrial action in Vancouver and Montreal had extended wait times too.

“Record volumes are gumming up the system a bit too, it’s not catastrophic, but the system is creaking, with delays in China’s largest ports throwing off schedules further along the supply chain,” said Hooper.

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Singapore and Malaysia, major regional hubs, have not been affected, he said, but there is “Increased nervousness about industrial action [in the US] given that negotiating positions appear to be further apart”.

Drewry has lowered its 2025 growth predictions to 2.6%, for 2025, from 2.9% earlier this year, a substantial fall on this year’s growth now expected to be 6%.

MDS Transmodal analyst Antonella Teodoro assessed the situation for the coming year: “Since last December, fleet capacity has expanded by more than 3.4 million teu, equating to an annual increase of 13%. Looking ahead to 2025, fleet capacity is projected to grow by an additional 1.8 million teu, translating to an annual growth of 6% – assuming no ships are sent to the scrapyard.”

“Does the industry need this much additional capacity?” Asked Teodoro.

The answer to that depends on market conditions and “whether shipping lines will resume using the Suez Canal or continue re-routing via the Cape of Good Hope,” she said.

Meanwhile, Xeneta’s chief analyst, Peter Sand sounded a more cautious note: “We’re not looking at dramatic increases [in congestion].”

Colombo has seen an all-time high in the number of vessels waiting at anchor, according to Clarkson’s data, with some 161,500 teu awaiting a berth as of 4 December, up from 66,000 teu in September, but Sand said this was an operational efficiency challenge.

“What may also be happening is that carriers are in the process of resetting their networks,” explained Sand.

“New alliances and their services cannot be reset over a weekend, so ships may be arriving at a port on one service and then waiting outside a port until it can join its new service loop.”