Declining sea ice is creating new possibilities for industrial activities in the Arctic, yet the region is highly variable in its resources and conditions, creating a complex risk picture. To date, debates have been polarized and focused more on the consequences than the probability of accidents. DNV GL has therefore developed an interactive Arctic Risk Map to help communicate transparently the risks associated with maritime and offshore activities in the Arctic to a diverse audience.
The map shows seasonal distribution of ice; metocean (physical environment) conditions, biological assets, shipping traffic, oil and gas resources and accident history. It also includes a Safety and Operability Index, showing the different factors that impact the risk level, depending on the season and location in the Arctic. In addition, an Environmental Vulnerability Index identifies areas and seasons when species have greater vulnerability towards oil spills.
In several areas, the consequence of an accident in the Arctic is likely to be more severe than in others. The map is a useful tool to identify regions that require special attention when it comes to planning of activities and for imposing mitigation measures throughout the year. The map can also provide input to decisions-makers about restricting certain types of activities in specific areas at different times of the year.
“The Arctic is not a monolithic area and the risk picture varies accordingly. Regulators and policymakers need a better decision basis for understanding the risks associated with Arctic development. The DNV GL Arctic Risk Map can help facilitate transparent discussions to address the many dilemmas,” says Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, President of Maritime, DNV GL.
Furthermore, industry mustn’t try to run before it can walk. It’s important to take a stepwise approach where learning and technology is developed progressively towards the more challenging Arctic areas.”
One higher risk activity illustrated by the map is the use of Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) as engine fuel for ships.The map shows where there is a substantial overlap between vulnerable environmental resources and the risk of HFO spill from shipping: in the Davis Strait, Hudson Strait, west and south-eastern part of the Barents Sea, Chukchi Sea and along the Northern Sea Route. These are also areas where activities are expected to increase in the coming years. As an alternative marine fuel, Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) is safe, offers lower emissions and if a ship runs aground carrying LNG, the gas would simply evaporate.
“Even though an oil company may receive a license to operate from the authorities, a social license to operate - whereby the industry has broad-based community support and consent -will only come with trust. Trust is built through transparent discussions about the facts, trade-offs and dilemmas. It all boils down to the question of whether the Arctic can be developed safely,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen.
“As an independent body, DNV GL takes an active role in ensuring that any increase in industrial activity has a strong focus on safeguarding life, property and the environment. I hope DNV GL’s Arctic Map will help bring the science and facts to the table to facilitate risk-based discussions,” he continued.
The Arctic Risk Map forms part of DNV GL’s Arctic Risk Picture project, an internally funded Arctic program in relation to DNV GL’s 150th anniversary in 2014.
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