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Red Sea Crisis

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Over one month since last confirmed Red Sea attack on shippingOver one month since last confirmed Red Sea attack on shipping

Quietest period for Houthi attacks since crisis began in late 2023 comes as expectations of Israel-Hamas ceasefire grow.

Gary Howard, Middle East correspondent

January 14, 2025

4 Min Read
Image: EU NAVFOR

More than a month has passed since the last confirmed attack on merchant shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, potentially the longest period of calm since Houthis began their attacks on ships in late 2023.

The last confirmed attack by the Houthis was on December 10. Three merchant ships under escort by US Navy destroyers, which intercepted Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and an anti-ship cruise missile targeting the convoy in the Gulf of Aden. 

Reflecting a change in Houthi activity levels in the area, UKMTO issued warnings related to one incident in December 2024 compared to 24 incidents in December 2023, 24 in January 2024, and 15 in June 2024.

Daniel Muller, Intelligence Analyst for the Middle East at Ambrey, told Seatrade Maritime News that while a claimed operation against merchant shipping likely took place on December 26, 2024, there has been a reduction in recent activity in the region.

“It is assessed highly likely that the reduced availability of suitable targets assessed to be in line with the Houthi target profile has led to a reduction in targeting attempts against merchant shipping,” said Muller. The Houthis have claimed to only target vessels with affiliation to Israel and its allies, although the reasons for targeting certain vessels in the past has been unclear.

Related:Reaction to the release of the crew of the Galaxy Leader

“Ambrey conducts Ambrey Vessel Affiliation Checks (AVAC) prior to every transit in the Indian Ocean Region enabling shipping to reach informed decisions, reducing the susceptibility of at-risk vessels by transiting via the Cape of Good Hope,” said Muller.

In March 2024, the Houthis committed to extending the range of attacks into the Indian Ocean and Eastern Mediterranean, leading to further changes in shipping routes after a successful long-range attack on MSC Orion in the West of the Indian Ocean in April 2024. Muller said the relatively limited impact of attacks on targets further from Yemen’s coast had probably led to a refocus on targets closer to Yemen, as most attacks resulting in damage to ships had occurred in or close to Yemen’s EEZ boundary, 200 nautical miles from the coast.

In January 2024, the US and UK began airstrikes on Houthi military assets in Yemen in order to reduce their capacity to target merchant ships. Many questioned the efficacy of the strikes as Houthi attacks continued in the following months, but Muller believes military invention has changed the situation for shipping.

“The joint US/UK airstrikes as well as solely US airstrikes are assessed to have deteriorated the Houthi capability to target vessels. The use of Unmanned Surface Vehicles has been significantly impeded by the US naval presence in the southern Red Sea. The Israeli airstrikes have targeted the Houthi capability to resupply – especially fuel – thus further impeding the groups’ capabilities” said Muller.

Related:Galaxy Leader crew freed

Merchant shipping may also have been granted reprieve as the Houthis turn to direct attacks against Israel on land, redirecting the group’s resources.

Despite the pressures on its capacity, Ambrey said it is likely the Houthis retain the capacity to target shipping, with their capabilities reduced but not diminished. The decrease in the frequency of attacks is a positive sign for shipping, but a return to normal in the Red Sea will depend on an end to the Houthi offensive against Israel, which is linked to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, said Muller.

At the time of writing, Israel and Hamas are close to securing a ceasefire, according to reports, but an end to hostilities in Gaza will not mean an immediate end to the threat to shipping from the Houthis, Muller warned.

“It is assessed highly unlikely the Israel Defence Forces would withdraw from the Gaza Strip straight away. Therefore, it is assessed unlikely that a ceasefire would immediately result in the Houthi ceasing attacks on merchant shipping. Ambrey assesses the Houthi actions to be linked to Israeli military forces operating within the Strip. Yet, due to the lack of suitable targets, it may appear as if the Houthi have ceased their offensive operations against merchant shipping (just as there has been no confirmed attack since the 10th of December).

Related:Houthis to end Red Sea attacks, except against Israeli ships

“A return of shipping to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will occur gradually, and Ambrey will continue to provide AVACs for stakeholders to have a clearer understanding of the risk associated with an individual vessel transiting the area in the months following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.”

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About the Author

Gary Howard

Middle East correspondent

Gary Howard is the Middle East Correspondent for Seatrade Maritime News and has written for Seatrade Cruise, Seatrade Maritime Review and was News Editor at Lloyd’s List. Gary’s maritime career started after catching the shipping bug during a research assignment for the offshore industry. Working out of Seatrade's head office in the UK, he also produces and contributes to conference programmes for Seatrade events including CMA Shipping, Seatrade Maritime Logistics Middle East and Marintec. 

Gary’s favourite topics within the maritime industry are decarbonisation and wind-assisted propulsion; he particularly enjoys reporting from industry events.

Conferences & Webinars

Gary Howard regularly moderates at international maritime events. Below you’ll find a list of selected past conferences and webinars.

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