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Threat ‘remains high’ to Israeli, UK and US shipping in Red SeaThreat ‘remains high’ to Israeli, UK and US shipping in Red Sea

Warnings to treat Houthi announcements with scepticism as Israel-Hamas ceasefire unfolds.

Gary Howard, Middle East correspondent

January 21, 2025

3 Min Read
Image: Houthi Press Release

The Houthi have lifted a ‘ban’ on vessels transiting the southern Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Gulf of Aden, but the situation remains fraught with risks for international shipping, according to security experts.

Houthi attacks on merchant ships were justified by the group as an action in support of Hamas, punishing Israel for attacks on Gaza. The Houthi commitment to end attacks on shipping is dependent on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, introducing risks to ships in the event of an actual or perceived contravention of the ceasefire from any side.

A ban on transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and surrounding area remains in place for Israel-owned and -flagged vessels, but has been lifted for ships affiliated with Israel’s allies and ships calling at Israel’s ports. The Houthi said Israeli ships will be allowed passage once all phases of the peace agreement have been concluded.

“Houthi military action in response to a perceived breach of the ceasefire agreement by Israel remains possible and would highly likely impact Israel-affiliated shipping first,” Ambrey noted in a Threat Circular.

“The Houthi did not specify how they intend to prevent an Israel-owned or -flagged vessel from transiting the Bab el-Mandeb. The attack of such a vessel, or a flashpoint escalation, is assessed as possible to result in an Israeli airstrike against the Houthi,” said Ambrey.

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The Houthi warned that military aggression against their territory by US or UK forces would see a return of attacks targeting vessels affiliated with the US and UK. The two nations have targeted Houthi military assets in Yemen to reduce the group’s capabilities and limit the threat to civilian ships.

“The maritime industry should be skeptical of recent Houthi claims,” the Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) said in its latest weekly report. “JMIC assesses that while a peace agreement is progressing and a statement by the Houthis claim that only "Israeli owned/flagged companies will remain targeted", the maritime industry should remain resilient in maritime security and risk mitigation efforts.”

As all parties involved stand ready to retaliate for a breach of the ceasefire, ships in the region could quickly become targets in a rapid escalation of hostilities.

“There is a probability for the US to launch airstrikes in response to Houthi military action against merchant shipping or naval assets, raising the risk for US and UK-owned shipping,” said Ambrey.

S&P Global Market Intelligence expects that the current tense situation in the early phases of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will end with a resumption of Houthi attacks on Israel, opening the door to attacks on shipping.

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“The Houthi will likely reduce the frequency of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea while the ceasefire remains in place, but the ceasefire is very likely to collapse beyond its initial phase,” it said.

The complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza is a term of the agreed ceasefire, but one S&P Global Market Intelligence does not expect to happen entirely. “The Houthi are likely to cite this as justification for continued missile and uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks against Israel.”

A resumption of Houthi attacks against Israel would bring a US and UK military response, it added, opening up shipping as a target for the Houthis once again.

“If Houthi attacks against Israel resume, US-led coalition strikes on the Houthi will very likely continue, triggering renewed Houthi targeting of US- and UK-affiliated vessels, which poses a severe risk to all vessels in transit in the 12-month outlook due to uncertainties around targeting selection,” said S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Ambrey said that any return of shipping to the region would be gradual, if the ceasefire holds, and would be conditional on there being no further escalation by the parties involved.

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About the Author

Gary Howard

Middle East correspondent

Gary Howard is the Middle East Correspondent for Seatrade Maritime News and has written for Seatrade Cruise, Seatrade Maritime Review and was News Editor at Lloyd’s List. Gary’s maritime career started after catching the shipping bug during a research assignment for the offshore industry. Working out of Seatrade's head office in the UK, he also produces and contributes to conference programmes for Seatrade events including CMA Shipping, Seatrade Maritime Logistics Middle East and Marintec. 

Gary’s favourite topics within the maritime industry are decarbonisation and wind-assisted propulsion; he particularly enjoys reporting from industry events.

Conferences & Webinars

Gary Howard regularly moderates at international maritime events. Below you’ll find a list of selected past conferences and webinars.

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