2024 tanker orders to reach second highest level in history2024 tanker orders to reach second highest level in history

Maritime Strategies International (MSI) has revised its forecast of 2024 tanker orders upwards by 20% to 60.8m dwt, which would be the second-highest contracting level in history.

The firm’s figures put tanker orders at 55m dwt in the first 11 months of 2024, leaving the full-year figure to “almost certainly” reach a level second only to 2006, according to MSI’s model for newbuild orders for tankers over 10,000 dwt.

Market conditions are expected to limit contracting activities from 2025 to 2028, with a surge of deliveries expected in 2026.

MSI puts 2025 tanker deliveries at 19.4m dwt, backloaded with around 12m dwt delivered in the second half of the year. The increased delivery pace from orders placed in 2023 and 2024 is forecast to bring 37m dwt of deliveries in 2026.

VLCCs accounted for 40% of tanker orders placed in the first 11 months of last year, all contracted with Chinese yards. Chinese owners rose to prominence in the orderbook for the second half of the year, taking over from European and Middle East owners in the first half. 2024 VLCC orders included new vessels for China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation.

Suezmaxes had a slower summer with just two vessels ordered between August and September, while there have been no uncoated aframax orders since September, added MSI.

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“The most ‘foreseeable’ factor in any forward view of shipping markets is always vessel deliveries, at least over the coming one or two years, and as contracting volumes continue to rise, so has pressure to the outlook,” said MSI Director Tim Smith. “MSI believes new vessel deliveries will outweigh anticipated scrapping, acting as a drag on the utilization rate across the forecast period.”

DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insight platform shows 129 crude oil tankers on order with alternative fuel capabilities across the entire orderbook, dominated by 126 LNG capable ships, with two ammonia-powered ships and a single methanol-powered ship. The platform’s oil/chemical vessel segment shows 115 LNG-powered ships and 58 methanol-powered ships.