Chinese oil demand likely to underpin tanker market in medium-term

Following a sharp downturn in tanker contracting that saw the orderbook plunge to new lows before tanker owners started placing new contracts at speed earlier this year, a small volume of new ships will be commissioned in the near term. This will coincide with a steady increase in oil demand in China, according to major forecasting organisations.

Poten identified the International Energy Agency which has forecast that Chinese oil demand will increase by 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 0.4 million bpd in 2025. OPEC’s figures are higher – 0.7 million bpd this year and 0.4 million bpd next year. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is predicting growth of 0.3 million bpd this year, and 0.4 million bpd in 2025.

All three organisations anticipate continued growth between now and 2030. The IEA has suggested a likely increase of 2.5 million bpd between 2023 and the end of the decade; OPEC expects growth of 2.6 million p/d between 2022 and 2020; and the EIA forecasts an increase in Chinese demand of 2.4 million bpd over the same period.

In the short run, Poten said that Chinese imports will start to climb again when refineries come out of the maintenance season. The firm’s analysts note that Vortexa, a London-based consultancy that tracks seaborne energy trade, recently reported that the Chinese Government has asked companies to increase oil purchases for the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve by eight million tonnes (close to 60 million tonnes) by March next year. Russia is expected to provide much of this extra volume.

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“While Chinese oil demand and crude oil imports are currently under pressure, the outlook generally remains positive,” Poten concluded. “With a limited oil tanker orderbook for delivery until 2025/26, it will only take a small improvement in demand for tanker rates to move up again.”