
Deliveries of product tankers will soar from just 3.4 million dwt in 2024 to 12 million dwt this year, a 256% increase, according to Niels Rasmussen, Bimco’s Chief Shipping Analyst.
Close to three quarters of the ships delivering this year were contracted in the two years from January 2023. Over that time, 278 medium-range (MR) ships have been ordered, the highest number, while contracts in the the Long Range 2 (LR2) segment totalled 19.2 million dwt, the most capacity.
These two segments will dominate deliveries this year – with 98 MRs (4.9 million dwt) and 52 LR2s (6 million dwt) due to be commissioned. In the other sizes – handys, MRs, LR1s and LR2s, scheduled deliveries will add 2%, 6%, 3%, and 12% in deadweight terms, respectively.
Owners of these tankers appear to be behind the curve on adapting to new fuels, according to the Bimco numbers. Only 7% of deliveries will be capable of using alternative fuels compared with 11% across other ship types on order. Another 12% will be delivered ‘ready’ for an eventual fuel retrofit.
Limited recycling has beset this tanker sector over the last five years – in fact, the average age of products tankers has climbed by 2.5 years since January 2020. However, a slower pace of renewal not only raises average age; it also restricts the pace of fleet decarbonisation. Ten per cent of the fleet is now more than 20 years old, the Bimco statistics show.
“A return to normal recycling patterns would significantly increase recycling but continued Russian sanctions and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea could further delay the retirement of the oldest ships,” Rasmussen noted. “We estimate that fleet growth will be 5-6% in 2025 while a decline in oil demand growth will likely result in product tanker demand growth ending lower.”
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