Dry bulk cycle not even half over: Stopford

"Last year I thought we might be halfway through the cycle and then given the ordering activity last year and the way shipyard capacity has developed I now think it's going to go on a bit longer than that," he said.

Stopford went on to predict that according to his figures, the current cycle would go on till 2021. However, he qualified his comments by saying that eventually it didn't really matter when conditions improve as doing well in shipping is really all about timing, noting that some of the most successful companies have been set up during recessions. "There is nothing wrong with recessions in terms of the fact that they shake up the pack and give people who have a bit of drive the chance to get in," he said.

There is a dynamic in the market due to factors such as congestion and seasonality that means it will not flatline and will have its peaks and troughs, Stopford said, giving the example of the two or three spikes in the past one and a half years.

Looking forward, he said the key issue is the prospect of another crisis. "I don't think the demand scenario is all that fantastic at the moment."

Another element of vulnerability is shipyard capacity, Stopford said. There is a very big cycle there and with 62% of current output in bulkers and if traditional big players in this market China and Japan start looking for other markets, it will kill prices, he said.

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