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Dry bulk FFA market: Halloween but no horror show

Dry bulk FFA market: Halloween but no horror show
The likelihood of a fourth quarter bounce appears further away than ever as we enter November. It wrong to say the week was a bloodbath but it certainly lacked any real tension or excitement.

All the indices save the Panamax 4TC fell Thursday-toThursday and the macro mood either suggests we are at a pre-Christmas bottom or that there is worse to come next year.

Capesizes began the week with a sell off on news of lower Auatrakua-China and Brazil-China fixing. From those lows there was a short and somewhat inexplicable rally and a marginally stronger start on prompt FFAs mid-week. This was quickly reversed before another whip upwards with no apparently clear cause.

The physical remains in the doldrums and the rangebound market gave way to more aggressive selling as the week ended, bringing the curve lower and more in tune with the depressed underlying.

Panamaxes were a touch lower despite the better feel to the index numbers. With Capes slipping and the tonnage count on the rise, the tone remains cautious on nearby and the front quarters.

A slight improvement on Atlantic sentiment but the market stayed under pressure with the nearby enticing to sellers and the deferred finding some support. A more aggressive sell off later on as a brief uptick in T/A levels was snuffed out. Brokers found little to be optimistic about – except to wonder how much lower it can go.

Supramaxes were quiet and rangebound with levels little changed early in the week then softer taking their lead from larger sizes. The back end slipped slightly and broke through some support levels but that seemed to be the extent of the excitement as activity levels became increasingly limited.

Prompt months were pushed down again with a little trading on Nov/Dec and more selling on the Cal16 as the index fell.

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