Speaking at seminar by scrubber manufacturer Clean Marine in Singapore, Anoop Singh, regional head tanker research (East of Suez) said at the start of the year it had expected non-compliance with the IMO 2020 sulphur cap to be around 20%, but it has now changed this forecast to a level of 10%.
Singh noted it was unusual for the shipbroker to change its view and that was, “Kind of symptomatic of how the industry is still unsure exactly how IMO 2020 will take shape”.
Breaking down the reason for its more positive outlook on global compliance with IMO 2020 he said. “We’ve increased our view of the volume very low sulphur fuel that will be consumed by shipping in 2020 and beyond.”
In terms of bunkers are sold Braemer sees that around 70% of marine fuel volumes are sold in areas were compliance with IMO regulations is relatively robust, and the broker has allocated a 95% compliance level to these regions.
“We thought in other parts of the world parts of Southeast Asia, parts of Africa, and parts of Latin America we were anticipating 50% compliance, we’ve increased our view to 75%. So that gives us our view on 90% aggregate compliance,” Singh explained.
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