Across the ten largest container ports in the US, inbound volumes were 1,827,627 teu, down 20.1% in May 2023 compared to May 2022. The result marks the eighth straight month of double-digit declines on-year. May 2023 marked the fourth worst on-year decline, following February, March and April 2023.
The data from Blue Alpha Capital’s John McCown noted a drop of 19.6% drop for West Coast ports, and a 20.7% drop for East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.
The recent dramatic drops in inbound containers are the result of pandemic-inflated imports in the year-ago period. The market is currently undergoing a normalisation, unravelling the massive increases in container volumes seen from late 2020 to late 2022.
Comparing to May 2019, the last available data before the pandemic, inbound volumes were up 4%. The figure gives a 1% compound annual growth rate, which is an improvement on the 07.7% for April, -0.1% in March and -1.4% in February using the same measure, said McCown.
“Both rates are still below the 3.8% ten-year CAGR in annual inbound loads from 2010 to 2020 that exclude the pandemic induced volume gains. My view is that previous volume spikes did front load some purchases of goods by consumers, but that impact is declining over time,” said McCown.
McCown does not expect forward growth to reach that 3.8% CAGR level, and instead expects growth of around 2.7%.
Comparing to the previous month, May 2023 inbound volumes were 8.1% above April 2023. That increase over the prior month is higher than the same figure for 2019 and for 2017, suggesting an underlying increase above the usual seasonal movements.
“Total inbound volume is now trending back to where it was prior to the pandemic and more typical seasonal patterns such as the ramp up in volume from February to the summer is returning,” said McCown.
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