NITC has a fleet of 37 VLCCs, nine suezmaxes and five aframaxes, which have been effectively removed from the market by sanctions against Iran. With the election of new Iranian president Hassan Rouhani in June relations with the West have warmed raising the possibility of the lifting of sanctions in the not too distant future.
Its weekly report Gibson’s noted that one of the impacts of the sanctions had been to reduce Iranian oil output by around 0.8m barrels per day (bpd). How long it takes to get oil production back to pre-sanction levels would impact the proportion of NITC’s fleet that would enter the global tanker trading market.
“It is more than likely the speed of oil production increases will be slow, in which case the national carrier’s tonnage could re-enter the tanker market as relets – again swelling the fleet,” the report said. While some of the fleet would require repairs and drydocking this would only provide a temporary delay.
In a stark warning Gibsons said: “The possible influx NITC VLCCs could have a catastrophic impact on the tanker market”.
Not a prospect that tankers will happy about as VLCC rates finally make some headway passing the $20,000 per day mark.
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