While the immediate future certainly looked bright, looking further out, the picture was less rosy, panellists said.
Noble Group co-head of chartering Jagmeet Makkar began by saying that the year has been characterised by high volatility, especially in the capesize market. Driven by high restocking activity by Chinese producers and and the beginning of seasonal factors, he said he expects to see the fourth quarter very well supported.
The question, however, is how much longer this can be expected to last. Makkar noted that going into the first quarter, the usual seasonal issues such as congestion in the South American ports and bad weather would continue to support prices.
Further out into 2014, he added that the data suggests that the year will be better than this year as demand remains strong and the rash of newbuildings ordered this year will not make their impact felt yet.
Banchero Costa research department head Ralph Leszczynski meanwhile pointed to the fact that the rapidly evolving coal market in China has led to much more import substitution and arbitrage-driven demand. As China's state-owned enterprises move increasingly to an autonomous, profit-driven model, they will be increasingly inclined to look for better value and will not be obliged to source from more expensive local coal producers.
As a sign of further good news, Drewry Maritime Advisors director Jayendu Krishna highlighted the fact that within the past two weeks the iron ore production ban in Goa has been lifted and by next year India may have jumped back onto the global scene. He declined to speculate however whether this would reach the previous 100m tonnes a year level, preferring to adopt a "wait and see" attitude.
Makkar concluded with a warning however that 2015-16 would be crunch time as this is when the newbuildings ordered this year would start to come in.
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