Analysts have not reached an alignment on the issues around the effects, with Vespucci Maritime’s Lars Jensen pointing to the breakup of the 2M alliance as “the first domino forcing Maersk down a path to find a new partner,”
Antonella Teodoro MDS Transmodal’s senior consultant believes the long-term effects remain unclear: “It’s difficult to say what the broader effects will be, but in addition to Ocean Alliance, other changes will include smaller carriers. M&As might return soon.”
However, Alphaliner’s Stefan Verberckmoes is definitive over the question of whether other carriers will link with the Gemini Cooperation: “Gemini is not open for other carriers. The word Gemini stands for twin,” he affirmed.
The twin theme was taken up by other industry observers, with somewhat tongue in cheek remarks, “Which one is Castor and which is Pollux,” asked one, referring to the two planets in the constellation.
It is early days, with Hapag-Lloyd having only informed its partners in THE Alliance today that it would be leaving, but the ramifications are likely to be felt throughout the container shipping industry.
Darron Wadey at Dynamar said: “History has shown that moving just one Alliance domino causes them all to fall.”
That means analysts are already forecasting major change: “ONE has to find a new strong partner. HMM and Yang Ming are small carriers. The Japanese have worked with the Germans since the 70’s. The Ocean Alliance is getting very large (too large?), so a reshuffle could be on the cards,” argues Verberckmoes.
“The break-up of another alliance is expected,” said Lars Jensen, “We now see that the break-up of Hapag and THE Alliance will mean ONE, Yang Ming and HMM will need partners and I would expect the next domino to be a split up also of Ocean Alliance and we will see new alliances emerge.”
Wadey concluded: “With the announcement about one year ago of the dissolution of the 2M, to take effect in January 2025, the question was how Maersk would respond; it was believed that MSC was of sufficient scale and size to perhaps go it alone. If Maersk teamed up with another, it could only do so realistically by choosing a carrier of scale, and this is certainly something that Hapag-Lloyd, as the fifth largest carrier, has. However, it leaves a big hole in THE Alliance, to which it is the second largest provider of tonnage.”
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